This page is not financial advice. It’s simply how I personally think about Bitcoin, market cycles, and risk after watching it rise, crash, recover, and repeat for years.
Bitcoin goes up, it goes down, it goes up more, then it goes down again. That cycle has repeated itself over and over for more than a decade.
When Bitcoin is at or near all-time highs and everyone is talking about it, that is usually not the time to throw large amounts of money at it — unless you are deliberately short-term trading and fully understand the risk.
Every Bitcoin cycle looks the same. At the top, confidence is extreme. People feel like it will never go down again. That’s usually when risk is highest.
Historically, Bitcoin has always offered another opportunity to buy it cheaper. That doesn’t mean it won’t go higher — it means patience usually wins.
For most people, dollar cost averaging (DCA) is the single most important concept to understand. Instead of trying to pick exact tops and bottoms, you buy small amounts over time.
You buy a little when it’s up. You buy more when it’s down. And when it really dumps, that’s when consistent buying matters most.
Bear markets can last years. If you go all-in early, you may spend a long time underwater. DCA spreads both risk and emotion.
Bitcoin can drop 30%, 40%, even 50% — sometimes very quickly. That’s not a flaw; that’s how it behaves.
If losing half your investment would cause panic or force you to sell, you are probably over-exposed. Position sizing matters.
Large holders, institutions, and early adopters control huge amounts of Bitcoin. When they take profit, price moves — sometimes violently.
That’s why sudden dumps often happen when retail investors feel most confident. Understanding this helps remove emotion from price action.
Historically, the best buying opportunities appear when sentiment is terrible. Headlines are negative. People say Bitcoin is dead — again.
That’s usually when disciplined, long-term investors quietly start buying, not when the crowd is celebrating.